DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL (RCM) FOR CAMERON HIGHLANDS BASED ON REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS (RCP) 4.5 AND 8.5

J.M. PANG, K.W. TAN

Abstract


The development of the local climate is important for climate hazard assessment. Cameron Highlands (longitude from 101° 21' to 101° 30' and latitude from 4° 19' to 4° 37') were chosen as the study area for climate downscaling. This paper presents the work of downscaling techniques and regional climate model (RCM) development. The second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 was applied to develop the local climate model for the 2020-2100 period. The climatic parameters chosen were temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall. The simulated RCMs are then analyzed using statistical reliability, including the Pearson correlation coefficient, linear regression, root mean square error (RMSE) and probability density function (PDF). The results showed that the simulated maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall are most likely to follow the RCP8.5 scenario. The precipitation threshold for the occurrence of flash flood events was estimated using the intensity duration frequency (IDF) relationship generated by maximum precipitation. A return period of two years and four hours of rainfall duration is used for threshold estimation because the rainfall is convective. The daily rainfall threshold for flood occurrence is estimated to be 11.3 mm/hr.


Keywords


Statistical Downscaling, Temperature, Precipitation, Climate hazard assessment, Flash flood threshold

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References


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