TREND AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL (AMDR) FOR SARAWAK RIVER BASIN, SARAWAK, MALAYSIA

C.H.J. BONG, S.C. LIEW, J.E. SIM, F.Y. TEO

Abstract


The Sarawak River Basin is one of the major river basins located in the southern part of Sarawak, Malaysia, and has experienced frequent extreme rainfall resulting in flash floods in recent years. This study aims to carry out trend and statistical analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) for 10 rainfall stations distributed evenly in the basin from 1975 to 2020. From the analysis, the AMDR records high variability for most of the rainfall stations, with the month of January having the highest occurrence of AMDR events. The linear regression plot of the mean AMDR showed a slight decreasing trend over the past four decades. The threshold rainfall value of 180 mm was used to perform frequency analysis, and the result shows that the return period for daily rainfall exceeding 180 mm was 2.71 years. The occurrence probability of the flood event at least once in 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years was 0.37, 0.60, 0.75, 0.84 and 0.90, respectively. A frequency curve based on the mean AMDR data with Gumbel distribution fitting was also developed from the current study and can be applied to the planning and design of flood infrastructures in the basin.


Keywords


Annual maximum daily rainfall, Extreme events, Frequency analysis, Rainfall trend, Urban drainage

Full Text:

PDF

References


ABD RAHMAN N., ALAHMADI F., SEN Z., TAHER, S. (2016). Frequency analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall in Wadi Alaqiq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysian Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 28, Issue 2, pp. 237-256.

ABDILLAH N., TEO F.Y., JUSOH A.M., FAUZI M.F., HASSAN A.M.M., DARUS A. (2013). Model assessment of water quality in Sarawak River, Malaysia, In: Proceedings of the 35th IAHR World Congress, Cheng Du, China, pp. 1-9.

AROUA N. (2020). Flood risk reduction strategy in Algiers, a brief modern history (XVIthC -XIXthC), Larhyss Journal, No 43, pp. 73-89.

ASFAW A., SIMANE B., HASSEN A., BANTIDER A. (2018). Variability and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia: a case study in Woleka subbasin, Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 19, pp. 29-41.

BONG C.H.J., TING S.Y., BUSTAMI, R.A., PUTUHENA F.J. (2009). Impact of climate change and its variability on the rainfall pattern in Sarawak River Basin, Proceedings of International Conference on Water Resources (ICWR2009), Langkawi, Kedah, Malaysia.

BONG C.H.J., RICHARD J. (2020). Drought and climate change assessment using standardized precipitation index (SPI) for Sarawak River Basin, Journal of Water and Climate Change, Vol. 11, Issue 4, pp. 956-965.

BONG C.H.J., LIEW S.C., NEGING M., MATTHEW RUJI E., GABDA D. (2022). Statistical and trend analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) for Kuching city, Sarawak, Malaysia, In: HARUN S., OTHMAN I.K., JAMAL M.H. (eds) Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Water Resources (ICWR) – Volume 1. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, Vol. 293.

DAVIES R. (2016). Malaysia – flash floods in Kuching, Sarawak, after 300 mm of rain in 24 hours, Floodlist. https://floodlist.com/asia/malaysia-flash-floods-kuching-sarawak-300 mm-rain

DAVIES R. (2021). China – massive floods hit Henan province after 600 mm of rain in 24 hours, Floodlist. https://floodlist.com/asia/china-floods-henan-zhengzhou-july 2021.

DID (2022). Resource centre – hydrology stations at Sg Sarawak Basin, Department of Irrigation & Drainage Sarawak. https://did.sarawak.gov.my/modules/web/ pages.php?mod=webpage⊂=page&id=317

GHENIM A.N., MEGNOUNIF A. (2016). Variability and trend of annual maximum daily rainfall in Northern Algeria, International Journal of Geophysics, Vol. 2016, Paper 6820397. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/6820397

GUMBEL E.J. (1958). Statistics of extremes, 2nd edn, Columbia University Press, New York, 375p.

HAFNAOUI M.A., MADI M., BEN SAID M., BENMALEK A. (2022). Floods in El Bayadh city: causes and factors, Larhyss Journal, No 51, pp. 97-113.

HAKTANIR T., BAJABAA S., MASOUD M. (2013). Stochastic analyses of maximum daily rainfall series recorded at two stations across Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, Vol. 6, pp. 3943-3958.

HASAN G.M.J., CHOWDHURY M.A.I., AHMED S. (2014). Analysis of the statistical behaviour of daily maximum and monthly average rainfall along with rainy days variation in Sylhet, Bangladesh, Journal of Engineering Science and Technology, Vol. 9, No 5, pp. 559-578.

KENDALL M.G. (1970). Rank correlation methods, 4th ed., Griffin, London, UK, 202p.

MANN H.B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, Vol. 13, Issue 3, pp. 163-171.

MASEREKA E.M., OCHIENG G.M., SNYMAN J. (2018). Statistical analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall for Nelspruit and its environs, Jàmbá – Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, Vol. 10, No 1, a499.

OTHMAN M.A., ZAKARIA N.A., A. GHANI A., CHANG C.K., CHAN N.W. (2016). Analysis of trends of extreme rainfall events using Mann-Kendall test: a case study in Pahang and Kelantan river basins, Jurnal Teknologi (Sciences & Engineering), Vol. 78, No 9-4, pp. 63-69.

PORTO DE CARVALHO J.R., ASSAD E.D., DE OLIVEIRA A.F., SILVEIRO PINTO H. (2014). Annual maximum daily rainfall trends in the Midwest, southwest and southern Brazil in the last 71 years, Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 5-6, pp. 7-15.

SA’ADI Z., SHAHID S., ISMAIL T., CHUNG E.-S., WANG X.-J. (2019). Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 131, pp. 263-277.

SUHAILA J., DENI S.M., ZIN W.W., JEMAIN A.A. (2010). Trends in Peninsular Malaysia rainfall data during the southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon seasons: 1975-2004, Sains Malaysiana, Vol. 39, Issue 4, pp. 533-542.

SYAFRINA A.H., ZALINA M.D., JUNENG L. (2015). Historical trend of hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 120, pp. 259-285.

TANG K.H.D. (2019). Climate change in Malaysia: trends, contributors, impacts, mitigation and adaptations, Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 650, Part 2, pp. 1858-1871.

VIVEKANANDAN V. (2017). Assessment of extreme rainfall using Gumbel distribution for estimation of peak flood discharge for ungauged catchments, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Sciences, Vol. 1, Issue 6, pp. 1-5.

WATTS J. (2021). Climate scientists shocked by scale of floods in Germany, The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/16/climate-scientists-shocked-by-scale-of-floods-in-germany

WEIBULL W. (1951). A statistical distribution function of wide applicability, Journal of Applied Mechanics, Vol. 18, Issue 3, pp. 293-297.

ZAIONTZ C. (2022). Real statistics using Excel. https://real-statistics.com/free-download/

ZAMIR F., HANIF F., NAZ S. (2021). Extreme rainfall frequency analysis for Balakot, Pakistan, using Gumbel’s distribution, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, Vol. 14, Paper 1283.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.