MULTIDIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL-NORTHERN REGION OF ALGERIA

H. ZEGGANE, R. GHERNAOUT, D. BOUTOUTAOU, S.S. ABDULLAH, B. REMINI, O. KISI

Abstract


The problems of water quality and quantity have the potential to affect users of the resource at the watershed scale. Watershed management is considered as an effective approach that brings together all water users around the core related issues in order to develop planned and concerted actions in a consensual manner to serve the general interest. In the central region of northern Algeria, there has been a severe and persistent drought in recent years due to a recurring problem, in time and space, of the availability of this resource. The spatial and temporal variability study remains one of the first tools of water resources manager. At the first stage, the study of spatial variability of the average monthly precipitation in central-northern Algeria, by a synthetic visualization of similarities between the response profiles of the seventy measuring stations, highlighted two rainfall gradients: a strong gradient between the northeastern and the southwestern regions of the study area, and a small gradient between regions of low and high altitudes. The link between the variables revealed three synthetic indicators; a big wet season where almost all precipitations are recorded, a short spring and a dry summer. At the second stage of this study, a temporal analysis of annual rainfall series recorded from 11 rain-gauging stations, through trends, ruptures and the standardized precipitation index showed a trend towards precipitation decrease over the whole study area with an average of 20% over the observation period 1910-2010. The analysis of the standardized rainfall index shows that the drought that rages on this region of Algeria is a consequence of the rate of years with mildly dry which is 44% and that of severe dry represent 9%. The persistence and severity of the drought in recent years in the study area is reflected in the increase in the rates of years with mildly dry in the order of 13%, on one hand, and by decreasing year rates of the mildly wet of 12%, 4.5% for the moderate wet, 3% for the very wet and 5% for the extremely wet, on the other hand.  


Keywords


Spatiotemporal variability, precipitation, response profiles, variables links, dry, Algeria.

Full Text:

PDF

References


AMS STATEMENT (2004). Statement on meteorological drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. (May), pp. 771-773.

ANAGNOSTOPOULOU CHR., MAHERAS P., KARACOSTAS T., VAFIADIS M. (2003). Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells in Greece. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, N° 74, pp. 77-91.

ARTHUR D., VASSILVITSKII S. (2009). Worst-Case and Smoothed Analysis of the ICP Algorithm with an Application to the k-Means Method, SIAM Journal on Computing, Vol. 39, N° 2, pp. 766-782.

BERGER A, GOOSSENS C. (1983). Persistence of wet and dry spells at Uccle (Belgium).Journal of Climate, N° 3, pp. 21–24.

BERGER J. O. (1985). Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis.Springer, New York, USA.

CHANGNON S. A., KUNKEL K. E. (1995). Climate-related fluctuation in Midwestern floods during 1921–1985. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 121, N° 4, pp. 326-334.

CHERNOFF H., ZACKS E. (1963). Estimating the current mean of a normal distribution which is subjected to changes in time. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, N° 35, pp. 1999-1028.

CONESA C., MARTIN-VIDE J. (1993). Analyse par la chaîne de Markov de la sécheresse dans le sud-est de l’Espagne. Sécheresse, Vol. 4, N° 2, pp. 123-129.

DAVIS J.C. (1984). Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology. John Wily, New York.

DOUGLAS E. M., VOGEL R. M., KROLL C. N. (2000). Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. Journal of Hydrology. N° 240, pp. 90-105.

DOUGUEDROIT A. (1980). La sécheresse estivale dans la région Provence – Alpes – Côtes d’Azur. Méditerranée, N° 2-3, pp. 13-22.

DUBAND, D. (1982). Hydrologie statistique approfondie. Institut national de Grenoble, France, 276 p.

HASSINI N., ABDERRAHMANI B., DOBBI A. (2008). Tendances des précipitations et de la sécheresse sur le littoral algérien : impact sur les réserves hydriques. IWRA, congres de Montpellier.

GHERNAOUT R., REMINI B. (2018). Analyse multidimensionnelle des précipitations annuelles dans le bassin versant de l’Oued Mina (ALGERIE). Larhyss Journal, N° 34, pp. 97-114.

GHERNAOUT R. (2014). Impact du transport solide en suspension sur l’envasement du barrage de Sidi M’hamed Ben Aouda, Thèse de doctorat, Université de Blida, Algérie, 222 p.

GOMEZ NAVARRO M. (1996). Calcul par les chaînes de Markov des probabilités de durée des séquences sèches et pluvieuses à l’Espagne. Publicaciones de la Asociación Española de Climatología (AIC), N° 9, pp. 203-209.

LEE A. S. F., HEGHINIAN S. M. (1977). A shift of the mean level in a sequence of independent normal random variables -a Bayesian approach. Technometrics, N° 19, pp. 503-506.

LETTENMAIER D. P., WOOD E. F., WALLIS J. R. (1994). Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948–88. Journal of Climate, N° 7, pp. 586–607.

LINS H. F., SLACK J. R. (1999). Streamflow trends in the United States. Geophysical Research Letters, N° 26, pp. 227-230.

MCKEE T.B., DOESKEN N.J., KLEIST J. (1993).The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Preprints, 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January, Anaheim, California, USA.

MEBARKI A. (2003). Cartographie automatique des précipitations : application a l’est algérien, Sciences et Technologie, N° 20, pp. 100-107.

MEDDI H., MEDDI M. (2009). Variability of annual precipitation in Northern West Algeria. Revue Sécheresse Science et changements planétaires, N° 20, pp. 57-65.

MEDEJERAB A., HENIA L. (2011). Variations spatio-temporelles de la sécheresse climatique en Algérie nord-occidentale. Courrier du Savoir, N° 11, pp. 71-79.

NEKKACHEGHENIM A. MEGNOUNIF A., SEDDINI A., TERFOUS A. (2010). Hydropluviometric fluctuations of the Tafna watershed at Beni Bahdel (North Westof Algeria). Sécheresse, Vol. 21, N° 2, pp. 115-20.

OLSEN J. R., STEDINGER J. R., MATALAS N. C., STAKHIV E. Z. (1999). Climate variability and flood frequency estimation for the upper Mississippi and lower Missouri rivers, Journal of American Water Resources Association, Vol. 35, N° 6, pp. 1509-1520.

PATURELJ. E., SERVAT E., KOUAMÉ B., LUBÈS H., QUEDRAOGO M., MASON J. M. (1997). Climatic variability in humid Africa along the Gulf of Guinea. Part II: An integrated regional approach. Journal of Hydrology, N° 191, pp. 16-36.

PEDELABORDE P., DELANNOY H. (1958). Recherche sur les types et le mécanisme des pluies en Algérie. Annales de géographie, Vol. 62, N° 36, pp. 216-244.

PERREAULT L., BERNIER J., BOBEE B., PARENT E. (2000a). Bayesian change-point analysis in hydrometerological time series. Part 1: The normal model revisited. Journal of Hydrology, N° 235, pp. 221-241.

PERREAULT L., BERNIER J., BOBEE B., PARENT E. (2000b).Bayesian change point analysis in hydrometerological time series. Part 2: Comparison of change-point models and forecasting, Journal of Hydrology, N° 235, pp. 242-263.

PERREAULT L., HACHÉ M., SLIVITSKY M., BOBÉE B. (1999). Detection of changes in precipitation and runoff over eastern Canada and US using a Bayesian approach. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, N° 13, pp. 201-216.

PETTITT A.N. (1979). A non-parametric approach to the change point problem, Applied Statistics, N° 28, pp. 126-139.

PUPACKO A. (1993). Variations in northern Sierra Nevada stream flow: implications of climate change. Water Resources Bull., Vol. 29, N° 2, pp. 283-290.

SARR M.A. (2008). Variabilité pluviométrique en Afrique de l’ouest : dynamique des espaces végétaux à partir des images satellites. Exemple du bassin versant du Ferlo (Sénégal). Journées de Climatologie– Nantes, 13-14 mars- Climat et société : Climat et végétation.

SEBBAR A., BADRI W., FOUGRACH H., HSAINE M., SALOUI A. (2011). Study of the variability of the pluviometric regime in septentrional Morocco (1935-2004). Sécheresse, Vol. 22, pp. 139-48.

SERVAT E., PATUREL J.E., LUBES H., KOUAME B., QUEDRAOGO M., MASON J. M. (1997). Climatic variability in humid Africa along the Gulf of Guinea. Part I: detailed analysis of the phenomenon in Côte d’Ivoire. Journal of Hydrology, N° 191, pp. 1-15.

SOGREAH (1962). Aménagements hydro-agricole en colline reconnaissance générale de l’Algérie, Alger.

SMITH K., RICHMAN M. B. (1993).Recent hydro climatic fluctuations and their effects on water resources in Illinois. Climatic Change, 24, 249-269.

TARHULE A., KOWOO M. (1998). Changes in rainfall characteristics in Northern Nigeria. International journal of Climatoloy, N° 18, pp. 1261-1271.

YUE S., WANG C.Y. (2004).The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resources Management Journal, N° 18, pp. 201-218.

YU J. R., TZENG G. H., LI H. L. (2001). General fuzzy piecewise regression analysis with automatic change-point detection. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, N° 119, pp. 247-257.

ZAHAR, Y. ET LABORDE, J.P. (2007). Modélisation statistique et synthèse cartographique des précipitations journalières extrêmes de Tunisie. Revue des sciences de l'eau/Journal of Water Science, Vol. 20, N° 4, pp. 409-424.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.