PROJECTION OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY BY 2050 IN THE COASTAL AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST OF IVORY COAST (ABIDJAN IN ABOISSO)

Abstract

The present study on climate variability carried out in south-east of Ivory Coast, in coastal areas between Abidjan and Aboisso. In this area with equatorial regime of transition, agricultural activities are developed. The aims of this study is to characterize climate variability and show the rainfall regime modification until 2050. Application of low pass-filter of Hanning and statistic test (Pettitt) methods were applied to the hydroclimatologic data (pluviometry). A projection until 2050 of climate variability was modeled by HadCM3 model of LARS-WG. The data of pluviometric (mm) and temperatures (°C) come from stations of Abidjan-airport, Bingerville, Anonkoua-Kouté and Adiaké. The results obtained show that the rainfall series studied present an alternation of normal phase, wet phase and dry phase. The rainfall series are marked by ruptures detected mainly between 1968 and 1982 reflecting rainfall declines. By 2050, the HadCM3 model indicates that the climate of the coastal south-east will register 22% of decrease in rainfall and an increase in 1.29° C of temperature.