The time series analysis and especially forecasting at short and medium terms has undergone a significant development during recent years. This study aims to analysis and forecasting of changes in the global mean sea level. In this perspective, the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method has been applied to sea level anomaly time series, collected from the various space altimetry missions over the period from January 1993 to December 2015.

The results show that the records of the global mean sea level have a clear increasing trend with a contribution in the initial series of 98.49%. This trend shows that the global mean sea level has risen with 88.6 mm, in seasonal adjusted data, over the period from 1993 to 2015. The application of linear regression indicates a rate of 3.36 ± 0.4 mm/year between 1993 and 2015.

Two seasonal components characterizing changes in the global mean sea level were identified. These two components have periodicities of 12 months and 6 months, respectively. The total contribution of these two harmonics in the initial time series is of 1.1%. The noise signal, obtained after removal of identified trend and seasonality components, fluctuates between -4.81 and 5.59 mm, with a mean value of -0.03 mm. A strong correlation between the extremes values of noise and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is observed, such as during the strong events El Niño 1998 and El Niña 2011.


Global mean sea level, Singular Spectrum Analysis, Decomposition, Reconstruction, Forecasting.

Full Text:

PDF (Français)


ALKAMA R., DECHARME B., DOUVILLE H., VOLDOIRE A., TYTECA S., LE MOIGNE P., BECKER M., CAZENAVE A. AND SHEFFIELD J., 2010. Global evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP continental hydrological system Part 1: Comparison to GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates and in-situ river discharges. Journal of Hydrometeorology 11, 583-600. doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1211.

Aviso Altimetry, 2016. Mean Sea Level rise. products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level.html. (accédé le 8 avril 2016)

BOENING C., WILLIS J.K., LANDERER F.W., NEREM R.S. AND FASULLO J., 2012. The 2011 La Niña: So strong, the oceans fell. Geophysical Research Letters 39(L19602), 1-5. doi:10.1029/2012GL053055.

CAZENAVE A., HENRY O., MUNIER S., DELCROIX T., GORDON A.L., MEYSSIGNAC B., LLOVEL W., PALANISAMY H. AND BECKER M., 2012. Estimating ENSO Influence on the Global Mean Sea Level, 1993-2010. Marine Geodesy 35(sup 1), 82-97. doi: 10.1080/01490419.2012.718209.

CAZENAVE A., LLOVEL W., 2010. Contemporary sea level rise. Annual Review of Marine Science 2, 145-173. doi: 10.1146/annurev-marine-120308-081105.

CAZENAVE A., REMY F., 2011. Sea level and climate: measurements and causes of changes. Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2(5), 647-662. doi:10.1002/wcc.139.

CHAPPELL J., 1982. Evidence for smoothly falling sea level relative to north Queensland, Australia, during the past 6000 years. Nature 302, 406-408.

CHURCH J.A., WHITE N.J., 2011. Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surveys in Geophysics 32(4/5), 585-602. doi:10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1.

CHURCH J.A., WHITE N.J., KONIKOW L.F., DOMINGUES C.M., COGLEY J.G., RIGNOT E., GREGORY J.M., VAN DEN BROEKE M.R., MONAGHAN A.J., VELICOGNA I., 2011. Revisiting the Earth’s sea level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008. Geophysical Research Letters 38 (L18601). doi:10.1029/2011GL048794.

CLEVELAND S.W., 1979. Robust Locally Weighted Regression and Smoothing Scatterplots. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(368); 829-836. doi: 10.1080/01621459.1979.10481038.

CLEVELAND W.S., DELVIN S.J., 1988. Locally Weighted Regression: An approach to regression analysis by local fitting. Journal of the American Statistical Association 83(403), 596-610. doi: 10.1080/01621459.1988.10478639.

COGLEY J.C., 2009. Geodetic and direct mass balance measurements: comparison and joint analysis. Annals of Glaciology 50, 96-100. doi: 10.3189/172756409787769744.

CU Sea Level Research Group, 2016. Global Mean Sea Level Time Series. (accédé le 8 avril 2016)

DOUGLAS B.C., 2001. Sea level change in the era of the recording tide gauge. In: Douglas B.C., Kearney M.S., Leatherman S.P. (Eds.); Sea Level Rise, History and Consequences; Academic Press, San Diego, 37-64.

GIEC 2001. Bilan 2001 des changements climatiques : Les éléments scientifiques. Contribution du Groupe de travail I au troisième rapport d’évaluation du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat, 97 p.

GOLYANDINA N., KOROBEYNIKOV A., SHLEMOV A., USEVICH K., 2015. Multivariate and 2D extensions of singular spectrum analysis with the Rssa Package. Journal of Statistical Software 67(2). doi: 10.18637/jss.v067.i02.

GOLYANDINA N., NEKRUTKIN V., ZHIGLJAVSKY A., 2001. Analysis of time series structure: SSA and related techniques. Chapman & Hall/CRC.

HADDAD M., TAIBI H., SI MOHAMMED AREZKI M., 2013. On the recent global mean sea level changes: Trend extraction and El Niño's impact. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 345(4), 167-175. doi: 10.1016/j.crte.2013.03.002.

HARMOUCHE J., FOURER D., FLANDRIN P., AUGER F., BORGNAT P., 2015. Une ou deux composantes : la réponse de l’analyse spectrale singulière. Colloque Gretsi 2015, 08-11 septembre 2015. gretsi15JH.pdf

HASSANI H., 2007. Singular Spectrum Analysis: Methodology and comparison. Journal of Data Science 5(2), 239-257.

HASSANI H., 2010. A Brief introduction to singular Spectrum analysis.

LAMBECK K. and BARD, E., 2000. Sea-level change along the French Mediterranean coast since the time of the Last Glacial Maximum. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 175, 203-222.

LAMBECK K., ESAT T.M., POTTER E.K., 2002. Links between climate and sea levels for the past three million years. Nature 419, 199-206.

LEFEBVRE S., 2013. Déformées solaires : diamètre et structure interne - Simulations en vue d'inter-comparer les données sol et espace. Thèse de Doctorat en Sciences de l'Univers, soutenue le 8 décembre 2003 à l’Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur/Département CERGA.

LLOVEL W., BECKER M., CAZENAVE A., JEVREJEVA S., ALKAMA R., DECHARME B., DOUVILLE H., ABLAIN M., BECKLEY B., 2011. Terrestrial waters and sea level variations on interannual time scale. Global and Planetary Change 75, 76-82. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.10.008.

MEYSSIGNAC B., CAZENAVE A., 2012. Sea level: A review of present-day and recent-past changes and variability. Journal of Geodynamics 58, 96-109.

MITCHUM G.T., 2000. An improved calibration of satellite altimetric heights using tide gauge sea levels with adjustment for land motion. Marine Geodesy 23, 145-166, doi: 10.1080/01490410050128591.

MITCHUM G.T., NEREM R.S., MERRIFIELD M.A., GEHRELS W.R., 2010. Modern sea level changes estimates. In: Church J.A., Woodworth P.L., Aarup T., Wilson W.S. (Eds.); Understanding Sea Level Rise and Variability; Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, London, UK.

NEREM R.S., CHAMBERS D., CHOE C. AND MITCHUM G.T., 2010. Estimating Mean Sea Level Change from the TOPEX and Jason Altimeter Missions. Marine Geodesy 33(sup 1), pp 435-446. doi: 10.1080/01490419.2010.491031.

NGO-DUC T., LAVAL K., POLCHER J. AND CAZENAVE A., 2005. Contribution of continental water to sea level variations during the 1997-1998 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event: Comparison between Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations and TOPEX/Poseidon satellite data. Journal of Geophysical Research 110, D09103. doi:10.1029/2004JD004940.

STEFFEN K., THOMAS R.H., RIGNOT E., COGLEY J.G., DYURGEROV M.B., RAPER S.C.B., HUYBRECHTS P. AND HANNA E., 2010. Cryospheric Contributions to Sea-Level Rise and Variability. In Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability (eds J. A. Church, P. L. Woodworth, T. Aarup and W.S. Wilson), Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK. doi: 10.1002/9781444323276.ch7.

WOLTER K AND TIMLIN M.S., 1993. Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index. Proc. of the 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Norman, OK, NOAA/NMC/CAC, NSSL, Oklahoma Clim. Survey, CIMMS and the School of Meteor., Univ. of Oklahoma, pp 52-57.


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.