The arid and semi-arid climate of the Marrakech-Safi region is subject to oceanic and continental influences. The cities of Essaouira and Marrakech, which illustrate these two influences, experience an important temporal variability in rainfall and temperature. Moreover, there are clear increasing trends of temperature during the last five decades. However, the evolution of precipitation is more contrasted by a downward trend in Marrakech and a slight upward trend in Essaouira thanks to the recent exceptional years. On the other hand, Marrakech is distinguished by alarming clues of global warming, like the number of hot days and heat waves. For future climate projections, we used a statistical downscaling model and General Circulation Model simulations. An equally alarming finding is made by downward forecasts of annual rainfall and upward forecasts of temperature by 2050 and especially by 2099. This, both in a future scenario where the use of fossil fuels is more accentuated and in a scenario where this use is more controlled and where efforts are made to limit greenhouse gas emissions.


Marrakech, Essaouira, climate change, Statistical DownScaling Model, General Circulation Model

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