DIAGNOSIS AND FUTURE PROJECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ARID ZONE. CASE OF MARRAKECH-SAFI REGION (MOROCCO)

G. CHOUKRANI, A. HAMIMSA, M.E. SAIDI, A. BABQIQI

Abstract


The arid and semi-arid climate of the Marrakech-Safi region is subject to oceanic and continental influences. The cities of Essaouira and Marrakech, which illustrate these two influences, experience an important temporal variability in rainfall and temperature. Moreover, there are clear increasing trends of temperature during the last five decades. However, the evolution of precipitation is more contrasted by a downward trend in Marrakech and a slight upward trend in Essaouira thanks to the recent exceptional years. On the other hand, Marrakech is distinguished by alarming clues of global warming, like the number of hot days and heat waves. For future climate projections, we used a statistical downscaling model and General Circulation Model simulations. An equally alarming finding is made by downward forecasts of annual rainfall and upward forecasts of temperature by 2050 and especially by 2099. This, both in a future scenario where the use of fossil fuels is more accentuated and in a scenario where this use is more controlled and where efforts are made to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Keywords


Marrakech, Essaouira, climate change, Statistical DownScaling Model, General Circulation Model

Full Text:

PDF (Français)

References


AIT BRAHIM Y., SAIDI M.E., KOURAISS K., SIFEDDINE A., BOUCHAOU L. (2016). Analysis of observed climate trends and high resolution scenarios for the 21st century in Morocco. Journal of Materials and Environmental Sciences, Volume 8, Issue 4, pp. 1375-1384.

ALEXANDER, L. V. and ARBLASTER, J. M. (2009). Assessing trends in observed and modeled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections. International Journal of Climatology, volume 29, n° 3, pp. 417–435.

CHRISTENSEN, J.H., HEWITSON B., BUSUIOC A., CHEN A., GAO X., HELD I., JONES R., KOLLI R.K., KWON W.-T., LAPRISE R., MAGAÑA RUEDA V., MEARNS L., MENÉNDEZ C.G., RÄISÄNEN J., RINKE A., SARR A. and WHETTON P. (2007): Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York.

ESKANDARI H., BORJI M, KHOSRAVI H., and MESBAHZADEH T. (2016). Desertification of forest, range and desert in Tehran province, affected by climate change. Solid Earth, n° 7, pp. 1–11. doi:10.5194/se-7-1-2016

FNIGUIRE F., LAFTOUHI N., SAIDI M. E., ZAMRANE Z., EL HIMER H., KHALIL N. (2017). Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, n°130, pp. 321–330. doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1873-z

FRICH P., ALEXANDER L. V., DELLA-MARTA P., GLEASON B., HAYLOCK M., KLEIN TANK A. M. G., PETERSON T. (2002). Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research, n°19, pp. 193-212.

HANSEN J., RUEDY R., SATO M., LO K. (2006). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis. Global Temperature Trends: 2005 Summation. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10025, USA.

HCR (Haut-Commissariat au Plan) (2005). Le Plan de développement économique et social 2000-2004. Région de Marrakech-Tensift-Alhaouz. Rapport Interne. pp. 325-350.

HERRERA R.G., PUYOL D.G., MARTIN E.H., PRESA L.G. et RODRIGUEZ P.R. (2001). Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Canary Islands precipitation, Journal of Climate volume 14, n°19, pp. 3889-3903.

HERRERA E., OUARDA T. et BOBEE B. (2006). Méthodes de désagrégation appliquées aux Modèles du Climat Global Atmosphère-Océan (MCGAO). Revue des sciences de l'eau, volume 19, n°4, pp. 297–312. doi:10.7202/014417ar

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2013). Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge Universirty Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New-York, NY, USA, 1535 p.

JOUILIL I., BITAR K., SALAMA H., AMRAOUI , MOKSSIT A. et TAHIRI M. (2013). Sécheresse météorologique au bassin hydraulique Oum Er Rbia durant les dernières décennies. Larhyss Journal, n° 12, pp. 109-127.

KLOSE S., REICHERT B., LAHMOURI A. (2008). Management options for a sustainable groundwater use in the Middle Drâa Oases under the pressure of climatic changes. In: Zereini F., Hötzl H. (eds) Climatic Changes and Water Resources in the Middle East and North Africa. Environmental Science and Engineering. Springer. pp. 179–195. doi : 10.1007/978-3-540-85047-2_14

KNIPPERTZ P., CHRISTOPH M. et SPETH P., (2003). Long-term precipitation variability in Morocco and the link to the large-scale circulation in recent and future climates, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 83, pp. 67-88. DOI : 10.1007/s00703-002-0561-y

LINDNER M., MAROSCHEK M., NETHERER S. (2010). Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems. Forest Ecology and Management, volume 259, n° 4-5, pp. 698-709.

MEEMEE (Ministre de l’Energie, des Mines, de l’Eau et de l’Environnement) (2016). 3è Communication Nationale du Maroc à la Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques. Rapport d’étude. 296 p.

MORON V., OUESLATI, B., POHL, B., ROME, S., and JANICOT, S. (2016). Trends of mean temperatures and warm extremes in northern tropical Africa (1961-2014) from observed and PPCA-reconstructed time series. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, volume 121, n° 10, pp. 5298–5319.

NICHOLSON S.E. et KIM J. (1997). The relationship of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to African rainfall, International Journal of Climatology n° 17, pp. 117–135.

OMM (2013). Le climat dans le monde 2001–2010. Une décennie d’extrêmes climatiques. Rapport de synthèse de l’Organisation Météorologique Mondiale, OMM-N° 1119, 20 p.

PERKINS S. E. (2011). Biases and model agreement in projections of climate extremes over the Tropical Pacific. Earth Interactions, volume 15, n° 24, pp. 1–36.

PETERSON T. C., ZHANG, X., BRUNET-INDIA, M., and V´AZQUEZ-AGUIRRE, J. L. (2008). Changes in North American extremes derived from daily weather data. Journal of Geophysical Research, volume 113, n° D07113. doi:10.1029/2007JD009453

REID P. A., JONES P. D., BROWN O., GOODESS C. M., DAVIES T. D. (2001). Assessments of the reliability of NCEP circulation data and relationships with surface climate by direct comparisons with station based data. Climate Research, Vol. 17, pp. 247–261.

SAIDI M.E.M, BOUKRIM S., FNIGUIRE F., RAMROMI A., (2012). Les écoulements superficiels sur le Haut Atlas de Marrakech. Cas des débits extrêmes. Larhyss Journal, n° 10, pp.75-90.

SEBBAR A., HSAINE M., FOUGRACH H., SALOUI A., BADRI W. (2014). Retour des pluies au Maroc méridional. Proceeding du XXVIIe Colloque de l’Association Internationale de Climatologie. 2-5 juillet 2014 – Dijon (France). pp. 596-600.

SILLMANN J., KHARIN V., ZHANG X., ZWIERS F. W., BRONAUGH D. (2013). Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble : Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research : Atmospheres, volume 118, n° 4, pp. 1716–1733.

STOUR L., AGOUMI A. (2008). Sécheresse climatique au Maroc durant les dernières décennies. Hydroécologie Appliquée, Tome 16, pp. 215-232.

VON STORCH, H. (1999). On the use of ‘inflation’ in statistical downscaling, Journal of Climate, volume 12, n° 12, pp. 3505-3506.

WARD, M.N., LAMB P.J., PORTIS D.H., EL HAMLY M., SEBBARI R. (1999). Climate Variability in Northern Africa: Understanding Droughts in the Sahel and the Maghreb, dans : Navarra A, ed. Beyond El Niño : Decadal and Interdecadal Climate Variability. Berlin : Springer Verlag.

WILBY R.L., DAWSON C.W., BARROW. E.M. (2002). “SDSM – A Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Regional Climate Change Impacts.” Environmental Modelling & Software, n° 17, pp. 147-159.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.